Living In The Philippines Forum

It’s Your Money => Money Exchanging => Topic started by: rpfromlv on October 20, 2010, 05:00:01 PM

Title: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: rpfromlv on October 20, 2010, 05:00:01 PM
Hi everyone. I see a previous thread here about this but no one has commented since 2008. Anyway, the USD-PHP has slowly dropped from 1-46 this past summer to now hovering at 1-43 and change. I asked a money changer why it was going down, this is when it was 1-45, and he said something about the new Philippine president wanting to get it down. He predicted it would go to 1-42 by December. So far he seems to be right? Of course I hear lots of rumors too. Anyway, I know that no one has a crystal ball, but a lot of you guys have been here a long time, any opinions on where the peso is going? Thanks!
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: BC Boy on October 20, 2010, 06:27:57 PM
its the USD that is dropping the most wich in turn buys you less pesso per dollar

http://www.x-rates.com/d/PHP/USD/hist2010.html
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: c_a_p_t_a_i_n_r_o_n on October 20, 2010, 06:33:13 PM
It\'s the DOLLAR that\'s going down when exchange rate goes from 46 to 42.......NOT the PESO

If I had a crystal ball about where exchange rates would go, I\'d be a millionaire many times over




Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: rdjlazo@yahoo.com on October 20, 2010, 06:59:19 PM
When U S $ get stronger you need more pesos to buy one dollar.
When this happens the importer buying U S goods and services
pay more pesos to buy dollars for their imports.
Good for the U S exporters bad for the Filipino importers;
We earning U S $want the dollar to be weakened so peso
exchange VS $ get favorable to us but not good for Pinoy consumers.
because Pinoys need more pesos to buy 1 US$.
I know it is confusing, I get confused too.
For us we want more pesos for one US$ and that is our
bottom line because we are U S $ spender converting
our $$ to pesos and the more pesos you have the more
Pinoy goods and services you can buy here.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: c_a_p_t_a_i_n_r_o_n on October 20, 2010, 09:59:55 PM
I hold bank accounts in GBP, USD, PHP, EUR & CHF.......best protection for currency fluctuations

Wasn\'t planned that way but having worked in so many different countries....working out OK for me
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Alohalani on October 21, 2010, 07:56:46 AM
I should have bought properties when the $=P55, or should have had a peso account instead of dollar... would\'ve...could\'ve...should\'ve...
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: indigo on October 21, 2010, 09:43:19 PM
Wait until all those Christmas remittances start rolling in and strengthening the peso, I think P40=$ is likely before the end of the year... ofcourse when the bills all start rolling in come January.... ;)
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: bigrod on December 16, 2010, 01:37:51 PM
$1 to peso currently 44.165 will see how it ends the day.  Possibly good exchange rate for Xmas shopping tomorrow. ;D

Chuck
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: richardsinger on December 16, 2010, 01:48:50 PM
Forecast from DBS Bank in SIngapore is for the peso to reach $1 = P40.0 by end of 2011. Could be 44.0 by end of 2010.

Richard
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: bigrod on December 16, 2010, 01:55:00 PM
Richard that would be nice. ;D ;D ;D

Chuck
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: richardsinger on December 16, 2010, 09:36:04 PM
Richard that would be nice. ;D ;D ;D

Chuck

Nice for some, not so nice for others Chuck. It is good to see the Philippine economy growing. But if your incoming money is in USD or other currencies then the rising peso means you dont get so many of them for your money.

Richard
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: bigrod on December 16, 2010, 10:31:55 PM
Richard if tomorrow is 44 pesos to the dollar I\'ll be happier than I have been for a while. I was not making my comment towards your statement on next years projected rate sorry if I confused you.

Chuck
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: PenthouseLife on December 17, 2010, 08:32:34 AM
The U.S. has almost $15 trillion, yes TRILLION dollars in national Government Debt.  The world banker elites are motivated to loan to Governments because they are not required to have any collateral or reserves for these loans. So they get to kick back and pull in someties 36% (varies wildly) interest on 15 tril, well you get the idea. Now you understand why the Rothchilds of are worth $10 trillion and Goldman Sachs into the trillions now also. It\'s the world\'s richest 5 or 6 families enslaving the asses more and more as every year goes by. The hopelessness of our national debt and the stranglehold of these super rich families, will continue to weaken all currencies not backed by gold and silver.

Some say gold went up, not really, the dollar and peso both went down. If gold goes from $300 to $1500 then the dollar and peso free fall collapsed by 500% Shocking to think of it that way right? Well it should be more than shocking. But (i mean this in friendly locker room tavern bar kind of way) the sheeple just will never understand how Governments, billionaires, and banks enslave all of us.

When gold went from $300 to $1200, did you point it out to your employer and say, \'I\'m going to need a 400% pay raise to cover this spread.\"?

So the truth is that both the peso and dollar went down, the dollar thus gone down faster than the peso in recent times. The peso should be much less per dollar (38 to the dollar?) but the Philippines central bank admittedly is tagging it\'s peso to the dollar to protect import/export activity, news articles available just google them.

The United States is expected to introduce an alternative currency as part of this free fall collapse. IF this happens, then the world\'s billionaire (in a couple cases trillionaire) banker elites will get that Government trillions of debt paid off to them in GIANT LUMP SUM! Instead of 3.76 trillion in interest per year (estimated because Federal Reserve conducts this in secrecy), they would get the entire $15 trillion in one lump. We would have 30 days to exchange our dollars at one set rate, then 30 days at another rate, progressively getting worse for the dollar and at the end of the term set to trade over to the new currency, the dollar would literally be worth less than the paper it\'s printed on.

I think the Philippines is going to need to give up on pegging the peso to the dollar, and allow it to fluctuate based on market conditions. The dollar is in a free fall collapse, I wouldn\'t expect it to hit bottom until something radical happens with the 15 tril in debt. I\'m thinking about rolling around in pesos for a long while. Unless you need it liquid for the active use of it, silver, gold, and commodities are booming. Farming is the next super boom. Agriculturally grown fuels such as ethanol will continue to starve the world population and drive food prices up up and up.

Cheers from Ceboom <-- Cebu if One AWESOME city
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: bigrod on December 17, 2010, 08:57:40 AM
  Anyone can correct me but if I remember correctly people were saying in January 2010 that he Peso would be down too 39 to 1 by now.  Dick
Dick,

I think I rememember that prediction. Am very happy that todays rate is 44.15 peso to the dollar. ;D

Chuck
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Hank S. on January 21, 2011, 08:24:12 AM
King: Heck of a good idea to convert $\'s into Piso\'s. I\'ve been following the trend and since summer last year the $ has fallen from almost 47PHP to fluctuation in last 3 months 43.502 low to 44.718 high on 12-22-10

I\'m expecting it to bounce around these #\'s for aboiut 6 months then steadiely go down (according to past history chart) which is why my question what is the best bank on Mactan or Cebu City to unload my $\'s into a PHP account and have my SS direct deposited there.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: halibaitor on January 21, 2011, 11:00:58 AM
It\'s the world\'s richest 5 or 6 families enslaving the asses more and more as every year goes by.

I think you probably meant \"masses\", but on sober second thought, it works that way too...  :D

I\'m hoping the dollar doesn\'t slide any further, as that\'s what I\'m starting from.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: brett4gam on March 23, 2012, 02:15:20 PM
Today I would get 44.2 peso to the AU$, last week it was 45.1, going up and down a lot lately
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: cogon88 on March 23, 2012, 03:40:44 PM

Rates today at central bank last week I bought dollars for 42.50 every time it losses against the dollar the fuel price increases hope it keeps starts getting stronger again

Tom/ Roxas City


23 March 2012

US$ 1.00

PhP 43.049

Repo Rate

6.00%

Reverse Repo Rate

4.00%

Inflation Rate
(Feb \'12)

2.7%(2006=100)
91-day T-bill Rate
2.148%

Gold Buying/ troy oz.

US$1647.20

Silver Buying

US$31.65
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: cogon88 on March 24, 2012, 11:12:01 AM
Stronger Peso Seen
March 23, 2012
President Benigno S. Aquino III has predicted that the peso will sustain its appreciation versus the US dollars and may possibly breach the P40 level next year against the backdrop of improving economic condition of the country.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Metz on March 25, 2012, 09:28:34 AM
I would not be surprised to see 20 peso to the dollar within 5 years.  The US is printing too much money whereas the Philippines has already taken their medicine after going thru the Marcos saga.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Steve & Myrlita on May 01, 2012, 11:01:32 PM
Has anyone ever noticed that the exchange rate always seems to drop right around the end of the month and lasting to the 1st week of the next month? It sometimes feels like that and thus targeting us who have govt pensions to get the least pesos for our USD / GBP / AUD etc. Maybe just my imagination but it seems to be that way more often than not. God Bless......
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: BudM on May 01, 2012, 11:24:46 PM
Now that is an interesting observation.  I will have to keep an eye on that pattern for when I begin exchanging on a regular basis.  Thanks.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: paulgee on May 02, 2012, 03:28:28 AM
Has anyone ever noticed that the exchange rate always seems to drop right around the end of the month and lasting to the 1st week of the next month? It sometimes feels like that and thus targeting us who have govt pensions to get the least pesos for our USD / GBP / AUD etc. Maybe just my imagination but it seems to be that way more often than not. God Bless......

Yes, we send money out to the Philippines at the end of every month, and never seem to catch the currency at its best.

Paul
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: richardsinger on May 02, 2012, 08:31:58 AM
Maybe there\'s a bit of supply and demand at play as well? If everybody is buying pesos at the same time, it is natural that the price will go up.

Richard
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Lee2 on May 02, 2012, 05:35:46 PM
Has anyone ever noticed that the exchange rate always seems to drop right around the end of the month and lasting to the 1st week of the next month? It sometimes feels like that and thus targeting us who have govt pensions to get the least pesos for our USD / GBP / AUD etc. Maybe just my imagination but it seems to be that way more often than not. God Bless......

Hi Steve as I think you know I try to stay ahead of them and exchange when I feel it is higher, often easier said than done for those on a fixed income, so I suggest maybe you do not exchanges all right at the beginning of the month if you feel that is when it drops the most. I have seen some correlation to that and it might be due to the pensions, the OFW getting paid every two weeks and sending their money home at that time as well as many families possibly getting their income on or near the end or the beginning of the month and thus sending money home at that time as well, so my guess is most money flows in during those times. Possibly try exchanging a smaller amount at the beginning of the month and then doing the rest in the middle and see if you get a better rate. Unfortunately there is no easy answer at this point and I feel for you and others who live on a tight budget.

Whatever is happening, the exchange has been going against us for quite a while now and it is making it much harder for many of the people I know to keep living here since the cost of living has also gone up, so they are taking a double hit. Many have been tightening the belts but running out of places to tighten it from. :(
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: richardsinger on May 06, 2012, 07:32:54 PM
Maybe there\'s a bit of supply and demand at play as well? If everybody is buying pesos at the same time, it is natural that the price will go up.

Richard

If that were the case Richard, all currencies trends would be so predictable that everybody would be in the currency trading business.

Randy, I wasn\'t suggesting that supply and demand are the only factors affecting exchange rates. But if the shifts mentioned earlier are real (I haven\'t noticed it for myself) and always happen at the same time of the month, then it could be one of the causes. And no matter what the cause is, if there is such a pattern of currency shifts, then I expect there are many Forex investors making money out of it and keeping quiet about it.

Richard
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: oneiloilokano on May 24, 2012, 09:12:32 AM
I also gain no pleasure from seeing the Euro\'s devaluation. But I am happy to see the dollar finally gaining.
When we moved here in 2002 the exchange rate was P 58 to $1. Now it\'s finally back to 43 up from a low of P 42 to $1.
A 25% loss of buying power. That\'s why it pays to live below your means, but still comfortably.
I am sure I speak for the rest of the American expats here when I say I hope this trend continues. Our USD has been trashed too long :).
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: graham on May 25, 2012, 05:29:56 PM
Well Paul,

speaking selfishly, I hope the US$ doesn\'t gain
too quickly. I would like my \"new found wealth\"
the AU$ to last a bit longer. I\'m enjoying a \"sorta\'\"
luxurious lifestyle lately. LOL

Graham
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: paulgee on May 26, 2012, 02:41:47 PM
Graham,

Sorry, mate, but it\'s up even higher today   1.00 USD = 43.7850 PHP

[url]http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=PHP[/url] ([url]http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=PHP[/url])

Better stock up on Vegemite!   ;D




Mmmmm ......  vegemite. Beaten only by marmite  ;D

Paul
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: graham on May 29, 2012, 09:58:57 AM
Marmite???? Your biased mate, ::) ::) ;D ;D
Good for making a hot soup-like drink. Made it
during winter time.
I still have 4 x 600g jars of Vegemite left from when I went back
to Oz in 2010.

I also have 5 jars of Golden Syrup.
Janet uses the Syrup for making that egg dish \"Leche Flan in place of
crystallising the brown sugar.

Graham
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: paulgee on May 30, 2012, 04:20:28 AM
Marmite???? Your biased mate, ::) ::) ;D ;D
Good for making a hot soup-like drink. Made it
during winter time.
I still have 4 x 600g jars of Vegemite left from when I went back
to Oz in 2010.

I also have 5 jars of Golden Syrup.
Janet uses the Syrup for making that egg dish \"Leche Flan in place of
crystallising the brown sugar.

Graham

Ditto the same way Mrs Gee now makes leche flan here in the UK. Anything that contains 6 ducks eggs must be good for you (I say to myself). I don\'t know if they sell golden syrup in any form in the Philippines, otherwise we will have to bring our own supply for the extended stays we plan in future.

2.4 kilos of vegemite on your shelves eh, don\'t get it confused with the syrup  ;D

Paul
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: graham on June 01, 2012, 03:56:21 PM
Paul,

I have never seen Syrup in any of the malls here.
I have seen the green tins of malt tho\'. When I was young
I used to wait \'til Mum n Dad went out, and then get a
desert spoon and I was into the Malt. The malls
here seem to be starting to cater for the explosion of relocating
expats as the selection of food etc. is expanding.

One of the malls has this \"you-beaut\" selection of
fruit juices from Thailand. Goji, Pomegranate, Red Grape,
Peach etc. I used to just drink water but I\'m now hooked
on these juices....have no idea what \"Goji\" juice is, but by
heavens it\'s nice.

I\'m fortunate in that I have a mate who lives and works
here in CDO, but he also goes back to Oz every 3-4 weeks
and will bring back most things for me if I ask him.

Graham
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: cogon88 on October 05, 2012, 08:38:39 AM
This is a new forecast for the dollar to peso exchange rate in the Manila Papers Today

Tom / Roxas City




Peso forecast to end year at 40.80/dollar

MANILA, Philippines - The local currency the peso, which appreciated the past four weeks by around half a percent, closed 12.5 centavos higher on Thursday at P41.47 per dollar, boosting the likelihood that the local unit would gain more strength and end the year at about P40.80 per dollar under a foreign bank forecast.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Lee2 on November 04, 2012, 05:33:30 AM
Well if this news article Peso seen to hit 30:$1 (http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=866457&publicationSubCategoryId=66) next year is even close to correct then many of us may be pretty upset
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Gray Wolf on November 04, 2012, 05:51:12 AM
Quote from: \"Mr. Lee\" post=47769
Well if this news article Peso seen to hit 30:$1 ([url]http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=866457&publicationSubCategoryId=66[/url]) next year is even close to correct then many of us may be pretty upset


The article\'s title doesn\'t reflect the statements made:

\"The peso could strengthen to the 30-level against the dollar next year as investors continue to flood emerging markets regardless of the outcome of the US elections on Tuesday, an investment bank said.

In its latest research note, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA) said it expects the peso to average 41 to a dollar by the first quarter of 2013, before appreciating further to 39.80 for the rest of the year.

BofA’s forecasts are stronger than the government’s official assumption of 42-45 next year. The peso closed at 41.18 on Wednesday, the last trading day before the holidays.\"


I think they meant to print 40:1, not 30:1...    Maybe I\'m missing something?  Or maybe they\'re using the SWAG method.   ;)   :P
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Art, just a re(tired) Fil-Am on November 05, 2012, 09:14:26 AM
Quote from: \"Mr. Lee\" post=47769
Well if this news article Peso seen to hit 30:$1 ([url]http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=866457&publicationSubCategoryId=66[/url]) next year is even close to correct then many of us may be pretty upset


The article\'s title doesn\'t reflect the statements made:

\"The peso could strengthen to the 30-level against the dollar next year as investors continue to flood emerging markets regardless of the outcome of the US elections on Tuesday, an investment bank said.

In its latest research note, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA) said it expects the peso to average 41 to a dollar by the first quarter of 2013, before appreciating further to 39.80 for the rest of the year.

BofA’s forecasts are stronger than the government’s official assumption of 42-45 next year. The peso closed at 41.18 on Wednesday, the last trading day before the holidays.\"


I think they meant to print 40:1, not 30:1...    Maybe I\'m missing something?  Or maybe they\'re using the SWAG method.   ;)   :P
I think 30 to 1 is a misprint! No expert's crystal ball is that reliable to predict that kind of a low exchange rate all of a sudden!  ???
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: FMSINC on December 29, 2012, 11:57:21 AM
Article in todays paper on Piso

Tom/ Roxas City

Peso Registers Its Biggest Appreciation
In 2012
By CLARISSA BATINO (BLOOMBERG)
December 28, 2012, 5:41pm
The Philippine peso is set for its best annual advance since 2007, spurred by the fastest economic growth in Southeast Asia and speculation that the nation is on track to win its first investment-grade rating.

Standard & Poor’s raised its outlook on the country’s BB+ debt rating to positive from stable last week and said an upgrade is possible in 2013 as public finances improve. The peso reached its strongest level since March 2008 last month after official data showed the $225 billion economy grew 7.1 percent last quarter, the fastest pace in two years. Its rally in 2012, Asia’s best exchange-rate performance after South Korea’s won, prompted the central bank to impose limits this week on banks’ non-deliverable currency forwards positions.

“The Philippines turned into the darling of investors in 2012 as growth exceeded expectations and further upgrades look imminent,” said Dalmacio Martin, senior vice president at BDO Unibank Inc., the nation’s largest lender. “Benign inflation allowed the central bank to cut policy rates four times this year, while a narrowing budget deficit enhanced our allure.”

The peso strengthened 6.7 percent this year to 41.075 per dollar at 10:37 a.m. in Manila, data from Tullett Prebon Plc show. That’s the biggest gain since a 19 percent appreciation in 2007. The currency climbed 0.1 percent today and was little changed from a week ago. Philippine financial markets will be closed Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

One-month implied volatility in the peso, a gauge of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, fell to 4.4 percent from 7.75 percent a year ago.

S&P’s decision to bolster the nation’s credit outlook on Dec. 20 came a few hours after President Benigno Aquino signed into law higher tobacco and liquor taxes, which are estimated to boost revenue by 184.3 billion pesos ($4.5 billion) in the first four years of implementation. The credit assessor last raised the rating by a notch in July to the highest sub-investment grade, followed by a similar move by Moody’s Investors Service in October.

The country’s inflation rate fell to a five-month low of 2.8 percent in November, according to the most recent data. The central bank reduced its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a total one percentage point in 2012 to an all-time low of 3.5 percent. The government’s 11-month budget deficit of 127.3 billion pesos was less than half the 2012 ceiling, according to a report yesterday.

The Philippines will likely reach investment grade in 2013 and managing the currency would become “more challenging” by then, central bank Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said Dec. 21.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas imposed a ceiling for non- deliverable forwards for local lenders at 20 percent of capital, and 100 percent for foreign entities, Governor Amando Tetangco said in a Dec. 26 briefing. Banks have two months to comply with the regulation, which will be reviewed after six months, Tetangco said.

Earlier this year, Bangko Sentral ordered lenders to provide more funds to cover risks on forward transactions and banned overseas investors from its special-deposit accounts. Capital controls won’t be necessary at this stage, Tetangco said this month.

“Excess liquidity and lingering positive sentiment will remain as drivers, but it is difficult to replicate the same results next year as we have become relatively expensive,” Martin said. “Regulatory prudential measures will also limit returns.”
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Lee2 on September 19, 2016, 10:49:21 PM
Well if this news article Peso seen to hit 30:$1 ([url]http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=866457&publicationSubCategoryId=66[/url]) next year is even close to correct then many of us may be pretty upset
The peso is now closing in on 48 to 1 US dollar, what a difference some years make.
http://tinyurl.com/jykghnb (http://tinyurl.com/jykghnb)
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: suzukig1 on September 19, 2016, 11:31:09 PM
Next year watch how things go with all of the infrastructure projects planned.  It's a huge amount of money.  Most (all) infrastructure projects will have foreign company partners.  So if those projects actually get out of the planning stages a lot of money will be going out of the PHL to pay these foreign companies.  Money going out of the PHL means a weaker peso.  U.S. interest rate hikes means a weaker peso.  It could go to 49 or 50 next year.  (This is not me talking but bits and pieces I read here and there.)
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Art, just a re(tired) Fil-Am on November 10, 2016, 10:37:22 PM
http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=PHP (http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=PHP)

XE Currency Converter: USD to PHP
1 USD =49.1243PHP

2016-11-10 22:32 local time
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Vicks on November 11, 2016, 11:44:31 AM
P55 = $ by the end of January 2017

P57 = $ by the end of December 2017
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: BudM on November 11, 2016, 12:43:43 PM
We don't need the rate fluctuating crazy n either direction.  Just fairly steadily adjusting to what it needs to.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Steve & Myrlita on November 11, 2016, 04:29:49 PM
As long as it's caused by the rising dollar not falling peso. Falling peso means inflation to compensate.
Title: Re: How far down will the Peso go?
Post by: Lee2 on November 11, 2016, 08:55:59 PM
P55 = $ by the end of January 2017

P57 = $ by the end of December 2017
Just curious, any reason you think this way? I am deciding to buy pesos now (BPI online) for our next trip over or wait until we get there in February..