I must have over 20 years experience in the FOREX market and the exchange rates are usually tied to interest rates. There is a portion to political stability, but lets leave that off the table.
I never believed in hedges and future contracts as I would be converting money on a monthly basis so the risks were spread out over time. We made money going up lost money on the way down, but it was not in our business model to be currency spectulators.
Based on my guess, I pretty sure that interest rates will be moving up. I have my house building money in a bond fund right now. The value of the fund is dropping as interest rates are ticking up, however the change in the forex yields more pesos. As of yesterday, with interest earned and more pesos, I coming out ahead of the game.and
This is money earmarked to spend on building, so I will try and convert as late as possible to earn more pesos.
I have a big decision on what to do with the proceeds on the sale of my current home as I need it to generate income as well as drawing down principle to live off of until I hit SS age. It has to last quite a long time. As interest rates fall, the per share price and I can buy more shares. Dividends are paid on a per share basis. In the bond fund world, as bond matures, the fund is able to buy more bonds at a cheaper price and it will then yields a higher dividend.
I'm pretty sure that I will just stick it all in the same bond fund and since I will be in it for the long haul, the income it generates will off set the decrease in price over time. The old days of the stock market and bond market moving in different directions are over so I definitely has me guessing.