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1
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by MotorSarge on April 08, 2020, 08:13:47 AM »
Would you two good brothers of Living In The Philippines like a set of 16oz gloves or some black poly body bags....we're all on the same team here...stop expressing yer knowledge.

 8)
2
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by lost_in_samoa on April 08, 2020, 07:41:58 AM »
Be nice.

Awwww Dad!  It was his fault

I've been framed


If I am any nicer he will get diabetes.


Oh okay.
3
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by Steve & Myrlita on April 08, 2020, 07:31:06 AM »
Be nice.
4
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by lost_in_samoa on April 08, 2020, 04:51:03 AM »
I will cut you down to size and send you back to your little corner. Boom!


Feel better? 

I'm comfortable with being the vehicle of your ECQ stress relief.  Glad to be of service ......  Though I notice your response lacked the testicular fortitude to address me directly.

I would remind you that we now have two more weeks to go.  This ECQ has already been extended once.  It is not unreasonable to think that it might be extended again, or even indefinitely.  So pace yourself.


You sure tore Boris a new one.  And by extension me.  Good for you.  It s_cks to be me.

Thanks for doing the research.  I do appreciate it.

But does calling into question one supporting factoid in a conversation invalidate the entire talk?

Which you never actually discussed.  Even after I presented you with the opportunity to .... multiple times. 

Why don't you want to discuss those ideas?  Why the tunnel vision emphasis on Boris?  Why the avoidance of my main topic?


My point is, (for the fourth time).

This pandemic continues to spread rapidly, and it has the potential to kill.

Reducing that potential has shut down the entire global economy, resulting in a wide range of catastrophic consequences.

That economic damage is done.  Lifestyles as we have known them have now changed.

Optimism is not enough.   It's going to take action.

So,  you can debate the details ad nauseum, (as you so clearly evidenced),  but I am taking action in my life and my community.  I suggest you do the same.


I believe that you focused on what ever detail you could exploit.  And repeatedly avoided the concepts you could not.


You built a Straw ManThen knocked it down.


Are you proud of yourself?
5
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by User444 on April 07, 2020, 10:14:33 PM »

This is a longer post, but it corrects the false and misleading information a special Living in the Philippines (LitP) member has been making about 7 million Americans dying in a famine in the 1930s. If you read until the end, you will find out how he was gullible enough to believe a pro-Russia, anti-America "news" outlet, how he was ignorant of the facts that he could have looked up himself, how his response was immature, and how his stubbornness will not allow him to let go of his pride and admit he was wrong.   

When doing critical analysis of a new claim, you need to look at the author's credibility, any potential bias, and the facts they used.

The burden of proof lies on the one making the new claim. When I challenged him to this, our special LitP member finally acquiesced like a good boy, but did zero investigation of his own and provided a source I had already read, and that I had dismissed as lacking any credibility. 

Let's look at the article. Boris Borisov is listed as a historian and wrote "Where did Americaís missing millions go? Holodomor Lessons." The author puts his entire claim on 1 faulty calculation that he based on the US population from 1910-1940, and he doesn't fully understand the low birth rate at that time, the number of deportations, the huge drop in immigration, and the increase in emigration.   

Let's see how our special LitP member bit Boris' big bait and got hooked.  

Comrade Boris' article was written on April 4, 2008 and was first posted on Russia Today on Oct 15, 2008. 
Russia Today is the first Russian 24/7 English-language news channel which brings the Russian view on global news.  They are funded by the Russian government and their American news company (RT America) was ordered to register as a foreign agent in 2017 because they participate in political activity. They complied. In other countries, RT has been fined for biased reporting (and they paid the fine), and RT reporters have quit due to RT's disinformation campaigns. 

Comrade Boris' original article is supposed to be at https://www.rt.com/features/news/31913/ but the website shows a 404 error.  It is archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20081018161615/http://www.russiatoday.com/features/news/31913 from Oct 18, 2008. Why would RT remove Comrade Boris' article from their website? That webpage has been like that for years.   

They kept his interview about his original article from Oct 22, 2008. 
https://www.rt.com/usa/interview-with-boris-borisov/ 

First, who is Boris Borisov? What credentials does he have? Has he written any books? Has he published any peer-reviewed articles in any journals? Does he teach at a university? Does he have a history of quality journalism? Who is his employer?
 
Nothing is listed about him except that he is a historian. This is his only article on RT. 

What bias might he have?  Look at the title and his last sentence. In 2008, Russia was getting a lot of bad press from the US and other countries about the Ukrainian famine (Holodomor) that occurred in 1932, and Comrade Boris was trying to compare that to the 1930s in America. When Stalin led the Soviet Union, an estimated 5-7 million people starved to death. His last line says "In fact, the U.S. should stop barking at Russia, which they usually do, and sniff their own butt instead." He is prejudiced against America for chastising Russia and is looking to find a "you did it too" event. He also calls America the "Western Evil Empire." 

Comrade Boris makes several false claims at the beginning of his article.  

He writes "just like you wonít find anything on the genocide of the indigenous people. American politicians donít give passionate speeches on the subject." 

He hasn't done enough research because in 2000, the "the head of the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs apologized Friday for the agency's "legacy of racism and inhumanity" that included massacres, forced relocations of tribes and attempts to wipe out Indian languages and cultures."https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20000908/aponline153014_000.htm 

Ouch Boris! You're loosing credibility just like our special LitP member! 

Comrade Boris writes, "Of course, according to the American version of history 'millions of men, women and children became the victims the criminal and cruel totalitarian regime in the Soviet Union'. American history cannot be described in these terms. Letís disprove this myth, using American sources."

Later in his footnotes, he says "U.S. information is not reliable." 

Ok Boris. You're going to try and prove something with information you don't think is reliable. That makes a lot of sense. 
 
Comrade Boris also claims "statistics from 1932 were destroyed Ė or hidden very well. They just donít exist. No explanation is given."  
If you look on the Statistical Abstracts page, the explanation says "Note: No abstract was prepared for year 1932." https://www.census.gov/library/publications/time-series/statistical_abstracts.html  

They also didn't prepare an Abstract in 1923 or 1927. Boom! Another hit on Boris! And our special LitP member believes this guy? 

Comrade Boris isn't looking at the correct population chart. He falsely claims "the numbers of increase in population change at one point by 2 times - exactly at the border betwee [there was no "n" in the article] 1930/31. They fall and freeze at this level for 10 years. And just as suddenly, a decade later, they climb back up."

Wrong again Comrade! According to the Vital Statistics of the United States (Census Bureau) publication, the US population increased by about 1 million people every year from 1930-1940. It never falls and freezes. Never! Boom! Strike 3! https://books.google.com.ph/books?id=JsR6qeDfUtwC&pg=RA3-PA16&lpg=RA3-PA16&dq=125,690,000+1933+population&source=bl&ots=O39uEogv2c&sig=ACfU3U0RLv49ZtV-5qfQ6E7bf4W0MTsXrA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj8_82mx9XoAhUVL6YKHRHUDTUQ6AEwCnoECAwQLw#v=onepage&q=125%2C690%2C000%201933%20population&f=false  

Comrade Boris is only looking at the Statistical Abstracts data between 1931 to 1940. Why he used these statistical summaries (that include social, political, and economic data) as opposed to the actual census data, we'll never know. 

He tries to make the claim that there should have been about a 15% increase in the US population from 1930-1940. In 1932, there were about 125 million people, and by 1940, Comrade Boris thought there should have been around 141 million people, but there were only around 132 million people. 

He writes, "According to the calculations, in 1940, the US population should have amounted to at least 141,856,000 people, given that the previous demographic tendency was preserved."

What calculations? What tendency? He doesn't list them or provide any statistical modeling. My theory is that he looked at the previous 20 years and tried to come up with a projected number. He didn't look at 30 years ago, 40, 50, 60, etc. He limited himself to a narrow window of 20 years. 

Let's look at the US Population table https://www.census.gov/population/censusdata/table-4.pdf 

1940 (Apr. 1) 132,164,569
1930 (Apr. 1) 123,202,624
1920 (Jan. 1) 106,021,537
1910 (Apr. 15) 92,228,496
1900 (June 1)  76,212,168

From 1930-1940, there was an increase of 7.3%.  
From 1920-1930, there was an increase of 16.2%.  
From 1910-1920, there was an increase of 15%.  
From 1900-1910, there was an increase of 21%.

My theory is that Comrade Boris calculated that since 1920-1930 had an increase of 16.2% and 1910-1920 had an increase of 15%, 1930-1940 should have had a similar number. His projection of at least 141,856,000 people by 1940 means he was expecting a 15.14% increase in the population. When this did not happen, he concluded that millions of people died.

What he failed to acknowledge was that since 1880, the population rate had been declining. The population was increasing, but not as quickly. Look at the full census chart on that webpage. It was growing quickly around 1880 but had not grown as fast since then. Why didn't Comrade Boris balk at the 6% drop (21%->15%) from 1910-1920? 

Comrade Boris says "we can surely say there were around 5 million victims of the Holodomor of 1932/33 in the United States."

What other historians have verified this claim? None. 

Where are the graves of 5 million people dying in one year? They don't exist. 
Influenza killed around 675,000 Americans in 1918 and there are plenty of facts, pictures, and data about that. But nothing was recorded about 5 million people dying in 1932?   Come on, Comrade. 

Go look at the mortality statistics for 1932 and 1933 on the census. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsus/vsus_1890_1938.htm 

1932 - the top killers were cancer, heart disease, and kidney infections (page 11). No starvation. No malnutrition. 
1933 - the top killers were tuberculosis, cancer, blood clots, and heart disease (pages 36-39). No starvation. No malnutrition. 
   

If you look at the RT interview with Comrade Boris posted above, he says "Seven and a half million people does not mean the number of particular victims of the famine, but a general demographic loss, or the difference between the supposed population on the date of the census that was due to be held in 1940 and the factual number of people."

So a week after he posted that article, Comrade Boris is now saying that they all didn't die of a famine. Come on son! Face the facts! Boom!

Comrade Boris used an unknown statistical model to predict how many people should have been alive by a certain year, and when reality didn't fit his prediction, he made up the claim that people had died. Why was there a drop in population numbers? A low birth rate, deportations, a huge drop in immigration, and an increase in emigration.

The birth rate was already dropping in the late 1920s. The number of births was the lowest it has ever been in 1933. If you look at 1900-1929, and then from 1940-2000, you can see that the number of births were at the lowest point in the 1930s.  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/t001x01.pdf 

Immigration dropped by at least 50%. For each decade since 1900, immigration was around 8 million, 6 million, and 4 million. In the 1930s, it was 699,375. That means at least 2-3 million potential immigrants were denied entry or didn't come to the USA because of the economic depression. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Yearbook_Immigration_Statistics_2008.pdf Table 2, page 13

1-2 million Mexicans were deported in the 1930s. Boom! Comrade Boris didn't mention that! These numbers did not show up on the emigration tables.   
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/americas-brutal-forgotten-history-of-illegal-deportations/517971/  

Around 2.5 million emigrants departed from 1930-1940.  
page 23 https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/1949/compendia/hist_stats_1789-1945/hist_stats_1789-1945-chB.pdf 

That's about 7 million people. 
The population from 1930-1940 increased from 123 million people to 132 million. Comrade Boris was predicting 141 million based on the growth rate of the previous 20 years. What are some reasons for not as many people being recorded on the census? People were deported, emigrated (he does mention this), had a low birth rate (he mentions this too), barred from entry to the States due to President Hoover's strict immigration policy that was modified in 1929, died (but not 5 million in one year), or just didn't fill out the census form. 

Boom! Our special LitP member has just been smacked in the face with a bunch of facts, but he is too stubborn to face the truth. He doesn't want to admit that he was wrong and that he believed an anti-America "news" site. What's worse, he is trying to spread false information to others. It really is a shame that he did minimal to zero due diligence, he blindly trusted an author with no credibility, and he exposed his own ignorance on this thread. His immature responses show his true character. Immature. Lazy. Gullible.    

Boom!  Check out philosophy. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The burden of proof lies with the one who makes a new claim. Due to his poor research skills, inability to comprehend data, and lazy work ethic, I have given him a free education today. 
I really pity his state of mind and wish that as he grows up, he will improve in life. 


In conclusion, what other credible news outlets have posted Comrade Boris' article? None.
Since 2008, there have been a few fringe blog sites, conspiracy theory sites, and small news aggregate sites that host it.     

Comrade Boris may only be familiar with a government controlled media outlet. In the US, there is freedom of the press. Countless independent journalists, newspaper writers, and photographers crisscrossed the country in the 1930s and reported on events. Not a single picture, newspaper article, or report was ever written about millions of Americans dying of a famine. The US census data confirms there was not millions of people dying in 1 year. The population was increasing, the mortality rate was dropping, and the life expectancy was growing. Our special LitP member bit Boris' big bait and got hooked, and those who are not ignorant, gullible, or lazy will avoid believing these outrageous claims.  

I'm ok with someone being ignorant in their own little world, but once you try sharing false or misleading topics with others, I will cut you down to size and send you back to your little corner. Boom! 
 



6
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by JoeLP on April 07, 2020, 12:59:37 PM »
Jeol.

I was referring to the 1930's when the state of record keeping was not what it is today.

Many could drop off the record (especially if they were born during WW I, meaning they would achieve "working age" in the 30's) if they didn't "register" as a tax paying employee, but worked for themselves, became career criminals, Hoboes (sp?) or a myriad of other things.

It was a time of great flux and I'm sure record keeping came along way down the list, after putting food on the family's table.

In today's state, everyone is probably on a govt. database somewhere. Meaning you're just a number on a digital roll and the tax man will get you in the end.

Peter
Ah, thanks for clearing that up.  On that base, I agree if such would have happened back then it would have been a mess.
7
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by Peter on April 07, 2020, 09:10:26 AM »
Not realistic.  The nation is very polarized.  Each side has their own share of billionaires who own/run massive corporations that employ thousands and thousands.  Those company owners report the taxes owed/paid by their workers.  This is a very real setup for a vast majority of Americans.  They have a boss, who pays them through a finance department that holds all the records on taxes for all of their employers. 

The more independent minded workers who do there own business/self-employment can get away with it, but the rest, which again are a vast majority will struggle at hiding their income/taxes paid in/taxes owed.  It will turn really ugly maybe, but it won't be as simple as you're laying it out to be.

Jeol.

I was referring to the 1930's when the state of record keeping was not what it is today.

Many could drop off the record (especially if they were born during WW I, meaning they would achieve "working age" in the 30's) if they didn't "register" as a tax paying employee, but worked for themselves, became career criminals, Hoboes (sp?) or a myriad of other things.

It was a time of great flux and I'm sure record keeping came along way down the list, after putting food on the family's table.

In today's state, everyone is probably on a govt. database somewhere. Meaning you're just a number on a digital roll and the tax man will get you in the end.

Peter
8
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by lost_in_samoa on April 07, 2020, 04:44:37 AM »
No. Misinterpretation. When people don't trust governments to spend their money wisely, they will withhold their taxes. No tax records, can't be counted.

And with that tidbit this conversation just went negative R.O.I.


Hopefully today I will receive more containers. So what is a better use of time, given the current circumstances?

Building digesters and distributing planters, or continue this back and forth? 

{sarc on}

Hmmmmm   ...... Let me check with my investment advisor.

..... Ring Ring ..... Ring Ring ..... Ring Ring ......

"Hey Morty what do you think?"

"Uh huh .... Mmmmmmm .... Oooh .... Ahhhhh .....  Yup ...... Got it.       Click."

Morty says I should go back to playing with sh_t.  It's more intellectually stimulating, and productive.

{/sarc off}

In parting,  I will offer something of value to offset the drain.

A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 - Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz
9
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by JoeLP on April 06, 2020, 11:21:32 PM »
No. Misinterpretation. When people don't trust governments to spend their money wisely, they will withhold their taxes. No tax records, can't be counted.

Simple enough for you?

Peter
Not realistic.  The nation is very polarized.  Each side has their own share of billionaires who own/run massive corporations that employ thousands and thousands.  Those company owners report the taxes owed/paid by their workers.  This is a very real setup for a vast majority of Americans.  They have a boss, who pays them through a finance department that holds all the records on taxes for all of their employers. 

The more independent minded workers who do there own business/self-employment can get away with it, but the rest, which again are a vast majority will struggle at hiding their income/taxes paid in/taxes owed.  It will turn really ugly maybe, but it won't be as simple as you're laying it out to be.
10
Announcements and Information / Re: Manila Lockdown
« Last post by Peter on April 06, 2020, 05:55:32 PM »
<  I just wanna make sure I understand what your saying.   This was a mass protest because there was a lack of the Nanny-State?   >

No. Misinterpretation. When people don't trust governments to spend their money wisely, they will withhold their taxes. No tax records, can't be counted.

Simple enough for you?

Peter
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